Is Nick Castellanos the Correct Option for the Padres?

Photo Credits-The Jersey Swapper on Instagram

With MLB still being in the CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) lockout, the San Diego Padres have yet to fill out their roster needs. One of their needs includes another outfield bat, specifically for left field. With one of the best corner outfield bat still on the market, will the Padres go out and sign him?

Currently, the Padres do not have a set left fielder with Trent Grisham at center field, and most likely Wil Myers set to play right field. One of the biggest offseason rumors so far have included Nick Castellanos signing with the Padres. Kevin Acee, Padres beat writer, said on an interview with Jon Schaeffer and Jim Russell, "I think their plan once the lockout ends is to sign a guy like Castellanos." He's one of the best outfield bats in the league, and the Padres need another outfielder, so why wouldn't the Padres want to sign him?

Nick Castellanos works with Scott Boras, so he will certainly not be getting a pay cut. It has been reported that he is looking for a deal around 5 years, worth 125 million (25 AAV). Now, the first issue is: Do the Padres have enough money? Well, the MLB Owners and MLPA plan to raise the salary threshold to near 240 million or even above. In 2021, the threshold was at 218 million, which the Padres were barely over, so is it worth to pay Castellanos near the rest of our salary moving forward? Probably not, and I will be explaining my reasons to not sign him.

Since the trade deadline in 2019, Castellanos has been playing in very hitter-friendly ballparks (Wrigley field, and Great American Ballpark). Once he got traded, his offensive numbers have absolutely exploded. Before the trade deadline, when he was still playing in Detroit, a very pitchers friendly ballpark, he played in 100 games. In those 100 games he had a .273 batting average, .462 SLG, .790 ops, 11 homeruns, and a 105 OPS+. Now, once he got traded, those stats showed a completely different player. He put up a .321 batting average, .646 SLG, 1.002 ops, 16 homeruns, and a 153 OPS+. In 2021, Nick Castellanos had an amazing year, but how much of an impact of playing in a stadium like Great American ballpark have? At Great American Ballpark, he had a .359 batting average, .702 SLG, 1.109 ops, 23 homeruns and a 193 OPS+. Amazing stats, but what about away from GABP (Great American Ballpark)? Away from GABP, he had a .260 batting average, .454 SLG, .772 ops, 11 homeruns, and a 116 OPS+. Now he was still an above average player away from GABP, but nowhere near what he was at GABP. With this situation in which Castellanos hits miles better at a hitter-friendly ballpark, what would this mean with Petco Park? At the beginning of the year, Petco Park is an extremely pitcher-friendly park, but in May and throughout the summer, Petco is kind of a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Everyone knows about his struggles with defense, but he was one of the WORST defenders in 2021. In 2021 he ranked 6th percentile in outs above average (OAA), while ranking 8th percentile in outfielder jump. Those numbers are terrible and risky to have someone with that caliber of defense to play daily. What about putting him at the designated hitter (DH) if the new CBA agrees on that, which is very likely. Yes, it would work out, but what is the point of paying someone around 20-25 million just to hit, when we could get much cheaper options, like Nelson Cruz.

I've talked a lot of bad things about Nick Castellanos, but lets talk about the good things. Castellanos is an amazing hitter, and he has always been, so what kind of impact would he bring if we were to put him in a lineup with Tatis, Machado, and Cronenworth? That would be crazy. A top 5 baseball player, along with the 2nd best 3rd baseman, a top 5 second baseman, and a top 3 left fielder. Now wouldn't that be fun to watch.

Overall, signing Nick Castellanos may not be the best investment, but he would help a ton, and would help the Padres get far into the playoffs. If it was my decision I would want to do around a 3 year deal worth 24-26 million a year. While that is a lot of money being spent, we would lower the years in his contract, which is a lot less riskier than 5 years. Now I don't know if Castellanos would take a deal with only 3 years, but that would be my ideal contract.